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It has happened again. Political violence in the U.S. has reared its ugly head once more, this time in the form of a lone gunman who fired his rifle from a rooftop at former President Donald Trump as he speaking at a campaign rally in western Pennsylvania. Fortunately, Trump was not seriously injured, but one audience member is dead and two others remain critically wounded .
Little is known about the gunman, who was quickly killed by Secret Service agents, but that hasn’t stopped the assigning of blame for the incident. I was shocked at how quickly some Trump supporters were to blame “the left,” whatever that amorphous blob currently is.
Most elected officials reacted responsibly, but at least two U.S. Senators who should know better, but are desperate to become Trump’s running mate, chimed in with idiotic statements:
Last night shortly before 9 p.m. when the two above X-cretions were posted, we knew even less about the dead shooter than we know now. According to the Associated Press, which published an update around noon today, the would-be assassin is a 20-year-old male living not far from the site of the rally. He’s a recent high school graduate and a registered Republican who once gave $15 to a liberal political action committee, identified elsewhere as the Progressive Turnout Project. The New York Times has also reported that the gunmen’s car contained a pair of explosive devices.
There are also serious questions about security failures. Most disturbing was a BBC interview with a witness who said he saw the gunman climbing onto the roof with a rifle. The witness alerted security officials, who did nothing until after the gunman had fired rounds aimed at Trump.
The Washington Post has learned (free link), as described in an X post from reporter Carol Leonnig, that “the Secret Service at Saturday rally relied heavily on borrowing local police for its specialized tactical units that are meant to help spot — and take out — an attacker.”
Prominent House Republicans have called for a Congressional probe into the Secret Service’s response. Thats’ an appropriate reaction. Hastily assigning blame on your adversaries, as the two aforementioned senators have done, is not.
At this point, we have no idea why the young man did what he did. But as anyone who has been paying attention for the last 100 years knows, no particular ideology has a monopoly on hate and its cousin, political violence, in the U.S.
We have a legacy of high-profile shootings and outright assassinations of our political leaders, starting at least with Hamilton, Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, MLK and the two Kennedys. More recently, there have been threats or actual attempts on the lives of Presidents Ford and Reagan, Rep. Gabby Giffords, Rep. Steve Scalise, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband Paul and Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Oh, and there was that little riot at the Capitol inspired by Trump himself on Jan. 6, 2021, that resulted in the deaths of five people. I’ve left out many other examples, but suffice it to say that our history of political violence is bipartisan in nature.
It’s also worth noting that there were threats issued to journalists at the rally where Trump was shot, as reported by Sophia Cai of Axios:
As CNN’s Jake Tapper observed in the video below, most of our leaders insisted last night and this morning that “political violence has no place” in the United States. It might make us feel better to say that, but the reality is that we are actually living in an era of political violence right now:
As readers of this column know by now, I am no fan of Trump, but I wish the former President well and my heart goes out to the families of the three stricken rally-goers. Speculation has now turned to how this incident will affect the presidential race.
I’m convinced it will help Trump — that is, if history is any guide. After John Hinckley nearly killed Reagan, the recuperating president’s approval ratings went up considerably, though they quickly came back down to earth because of a stubborn recession early in his first term. Still, he won a second term in a historic landslide, carrying 49 states against Democrat Walter Mondale.
Reagan, however, started with much higher approval ratings than Trump, who has a high floor but a low ceiling, in the parlance of pollsters. Nevertheless, as a recent New York Times analysis based on recent polling shows, Pennsylvania, where the assassination attempt took place and which is all but a must-win for Biden, has been Trump territory. He led by as many as 5 points before the assassination attempt. It’s hard to see how Trump loses any ground in the Keystone State after surviving an assassin’s bullet there.
Read more: Biden’s Path to Re-election Has All But Vanished, July 12, 2024 (free NYT link)
Ironically, the assassination attempt will garner some sympathy for Trump, who is very much an unsympathetic character. It will further cement his base, while perhaps persuading swing voters to side with him because of the consolation factor. Meanwhile, in the words of the Bulwark’s Jill Lawrence:
After such a horrific event, the calls for unity and statements like “violence is not the answer” are to be expected. Of course that’s the reasonable response. But this appearance of reason can easily turn into a case of “bothsidesism” in which people conclude “we’re all equally at fault.” That’s when I call “bullshit.” If any side is responsible for fomenting violence in this country over the past decade, it’s the Republicans, by a landslide. To suggest anything else ignores the preponderance of evidence and qualifies as classic projection. And yet, a large portion of our population will continue to say “both sides are equally at fault” — and worse, they’ll believe it.
By the way, will the photojournalists who took the Pulitzer-worthy photos of the defiant and heroic Donald Trump that are now being used to sell t-shirts, coffee mugs, and posters receive a cut of the profits? Just asking on behalf of the “fake-news” photojournalists who were also risking their lives by staying in position just so they could do their jobs.
Excellent analysis of a disturbing event.
Your observation about rally attendees turning on the media is not totally in sync with some reporting that I read. CNN reported that a Trump advance man threw himself on top of them, and they expressed their thanks. I wish that type of action had a bit more notice.
I'm not sure if you read Melania Trump's X post, but it was beautiful and powerful. I think she was an underestimated First Lady. Her post was eloquent and to me, struck the right tone.
This incident presents both Republicans and Democrats with choices--they can continue to hatefully target each other, or, as we've heard ad nauseum since yesterday, lower the temperature. Biden's July 8 statement to 'put Trump in a bullseye'? I'm sure he didn't mean a literal bullseye, but it sure looks bad now. Trump is a fascist. He's Hitler. And on the other side, Biden is the worst president in American history. How much can you hear this stuff and not internalize it? I think it might settle down for a while, but this too, shall pass and before you know it, they'll be back to he old mud slinging.
I'm hopeful and optimistic that this will be a watershed event. My gut tells me that it's bought Joe Biden some time and gives him a chance to look presidential. I'm also thinking that damn near becoming a martyr can't be a bad thing for Trump. I'm betting the roof will blow off that arena in Milwaukee on Thursday night. I'm going to watch Nikki Haley (*sigh*--my girl!) on Tuesday night. Not to mention the Republican VP--ABB (anybody but Burgum).
Ah--politics!!