America mired in a cycle of political violence

Unfortunately, it does 'have a place' here

In what is sure to become a Pulitzer Prize-winning photo, former President Donald Trump raises his fist in defiance after a would-be assassin’s bullet grazed his head. -Evan Vucci, Associated Press

It has happened again. Political violence in the U.S. has reared its ugly head once more, this time in the form of a lone gunman who fired his rifle from a rooftop at former President Donald Trump as he speaking at a campaign rally in western Pennsylvania. Fortunately, Trump was not seriously injured, but one audience member is dead and two others remain critically wounded .

Little is known about the gunman, who was quickly killed by Secret Service agents, but that hasn’t stopped the assigning of blame for the incident. I was shocked at how quickly some Trump supporters were to blame “the left,” whatever that amorphous blob currently is.

Most elected officials reacted responsibly, but at least two U.S. Senators who should know better, but are desperate to become Trump’s running mate, chimed in with idiotic statements:

Last night shortly before 9 p.m. when the two above X-cretions were posted, we knew even less about the dead shooter than we know now. According to the Associated Press, which published an update around noon today, the would-be assassin is a 20-year-old male living not far from the site of the rally. He’s a recent high school graduate and a registered Republican who once gave $15 to a liberal political action committee, identified elsewhere as the Progressive Turnout Project. The New York Times has also reported that the gunmen’s car contained a pair of explosive devices.

There are also serious questions about security failures. Most disturbing was a BBC interview with a witness who said he saw the gunman climbing onto the roof with a rifle. The witness alerted security officials, who did nothing until after the gunman had fired rounds aimed at Trump.

The Washington Post has learned (free link), as described in an X post from reporter Carol Leonnig, that “the Secret Service at Saturday rally relied heavily on borrowing local police for its specialized tactical units that are meant to help spot — and take out — an attacker.”

Prominent House Republicans have called for a Congressional probe into the Secret Service’s response. Thats’ an appropriate reaction. Hastily assigning blame on your adversaries, as the two aforementioned senators have done, is not.

At this point, we have no idea why the young man did what he did. But as anyone who has been paying attention for the last 100 years knows, no particular ideology has a monopoly on hate and its cousin, political violence, in the U.S.

We have a legacy of high-profile shootings and outright assassinations of our political leaders, starting at least with Hamilton, Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, MLK and the two Kennedys. More recently, there have been threats or actual attempts on the lives of Presidents Ford and Reagan, Rep. Gabby Giffords, Rep. Steve Scalise, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband Paul and Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Oh, and there was that little riot at the Capitol inspired by Trump himself on Jan. 6, 2021, that resulted in the deaths of five people. I’ve left out many other examples, but suffice it to say that our history of political violence is bipartisan in nature.

It’s also worth noting that there were threats issued to journalists at the rally where Trump was shot, as reported by Sophia Cai of Axios:

As CNN’s Jake Tapper observed in the video below, most of our leaders insisted last night and this morning that “political violence has no place” in the United States. It might make us feel better to say that, but the reality is that we are actually living in an era of political violence right now:

As readers of this column know by now, I am no fan of Trump, but I wish the former President well and my heart goes out to the families of the three stricken rally-goers. Speculation has now turned to how this incident will affect the presidential race.

I’m convinced it will help Trump — that is, if history is any guide. After John Hinckley nearly killed Reagan, the recuperating president’s approval ratings went up considerably, though they quickly came back down to earth because of a stubborn recession early in his first term. Still, he won a second term in a historic landslide, carrying 49 states against Democrat Walter Mondale.

Reagan, however, started with much higher approval ratings than Trump, who has a high floor but a low ceiling, in the parlance of pollsters. Nevertheless, as a recent New York Times analysis based on recent polling shows, Pennsylvania, where the assassination attempt took place and which is all but a must-win for Biden, has been Trump territory. He led by as many as 5 points before the assassination attempt. It’s hard to see how Trump loses any ground in the Keystone State after surviving an assassin’s bullet there.

Read more: Biden’s Path to Re-election Has All But Vanished, July 12, 2024 (free NYT link)

Ironically, the assassination attempt will garner some sympathy for Trump, who is very much an unsympathetic character. It will further cement his base, while perhaps persuading swing voters to side with him because of the consolation factor. Meanwhile, in the words of the Bulwark’s Jill Lawrence:

Joe Biden Is Stuck in Limbo. His Supporters Are, Too.