How on earth is this election even close?

Any 'normie' Republican would be coasting to victory ...

I don’t know what Proposition C is yet, but evidently the San Antonio firefighters union doesn’t like it. Update: Proposition C would remove pay and tenure caps for the city manager. -TC

I’ve lived through some nail-biter presidential elections before, most notably the contest between Al Gore and George W. Bush in 2000. As election results continued to dribble in, it became evident that all eyes were on Florida, where the results would not become clear for weeks. Finally, the U.S. Supreme Court in Bush v. Gore ruled that the recounting of ballots must stop. Bush won Florida’s 25 electoral votes by a mere 537 votes out of nearly 4 million cast. And that was enough to put the son of the former president into the White House.

At almost midnight on election night, I fell asleep on the couch and woke up four hours later. The same people were sitting at the CNN election desk. And they did not appear to know any more than they did when I dozed off. I shrugged it off and started my day. After all, in those days I had a community newspaper to put out every Wednesday in Dutchess County, New York.

What will the 2024 presidential election bring? I have no idea and people who tell you they know who the winner will be either don’t know what they’re talking about or they’re engaging in wishful thinking. The only development that appears certain is that, no matter the results, Donald Trump will declare victory sometime in the wee hours of the morning, just as he did four years ago.

For a variety of reasons, the races in the key battle ground states remains tight. A New York Times/Siena College poll (free link) among likely voters released this morning tells the story:

In a striking development, a just-released poll in the state of Iowa by highly-respected pollster Ann Selzer found Kamala Harris leading Trump 47-44, largely on the strength of older women. Iowa had long been assumed to be Trump country. If this poll is accurate, it could be a long night for MAGA Nation because other states with similar demographics could also swing to Harris. Indeed the Harris campaign now claims it’s no longer the underdog, though Team Trump has scoffed at the notion.

In an interview with Tim Miller of the Bulwark, Selzer explains the poll:

Ann Selzer: How Could This Be?

As those with long memories will recall, 2016 polling in swing states mostly favored Hillary Clinton but underestimated Trump’s popularity, perhaps because of the shame factor: one theory is that some of his closeted supporters shied away from admitting to pollsters that they were going to vote for such an abrasive and offensive man. So they simply lied to poll questioners. What remains unclear is whether pollsters are correcting or adjusting this year’s results in reaction to underestimating Trump’s appeal eight years ago.

The real question on my mind, which is the same one former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie asked this morning on ABC’s This Week, is why is this race as close as it is? In the weeks leading up to the election, polling has consistently shown that between two-thirds and three-quarters of Americans think the country is on the wrong track.

Yet the incumbent Democratic vice president is essentially tied with her Republican challenger. How could this be? The answer is not terribly complicated. Trump goes out of his way to be offensive to his antagonists because his supporters love it. But he has done virtually nothing to appeal to undecided voters in the swing states. Stroking the political erogenous zones of his core group of supporters is all that matters to him.

Even when he visits one of those swing states, he trashes his antagonists in the bluntest and most insulting terms. All he really needed to do in these final weeks was stay focused on his core issues: the border, immigration, crime and inflation. But he’s incapable of doing that. He constantly wanders off-script. And his handlers are either unable or unwilling to restrain him — or perhaps they actually think he’s employing an effective strategy, in which case you’d have to wonder about the quality of his campaign staff.

Consider Trump’s closing argument for his candidacy: the hate fest in Madison Square Garden, which I wrote about last week:

Hate reaches its apex in MSG

Then later in an appearance with Tucker Carlson, Trump mused about putting Liz Cheney in front of nine soldiers with guns pointed at her head. In a tedious but daily ritual, his surrogates marched out to defend the indefensible: “He was joking … he was pointing out that Cheney and her father are “chicken-hawks.”

Trump did not, as some Democrats claimed, say that Cheney should be put in front of a firing squad, but he was clearly fantasizing about a violent scenario involving the former conservative congresswoman and fierce Trump critic. That in itself was surely disturbing to millions of voters, some of whom could be persuaded to vote for Harris.

As I wrote in my endorsement of her, Harris is not exactly my dream candidate. I disagree with her on several issues. But Trump is unacceptable for a whole host reasons, including his actions in these last few days. Might others who were on the fence have been similarly persuaded?

Harris for president

If Nikki Haley were the Republican nominee, this race wouldn’t even be close. The former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador would be the presumptive president-elect. Instead, we will have a nail-biter election whose outcome probably won’t even be known for days. And if Trump loses, there will probably be political violence. Actually, even if he wins, there could be violence.

One in four Americans predict riots after the election and 10% fear a civil war whoever wins, poll finds -Daily Mail

My plan for election evening is to spend part of it at a local watering hole here in San Antonio. I will sit at the bar and take in the Texas vibes. If I get motivated, I will file a brief column on my thoughts and those Texans who are willing to talk to me.

Until then, adios, amigos. And make sure to buy plenty of popcorn for Tuesday!