'Pornography for Democrats': fantasy campaign does highlight a real problem
Red Meat For Mushy Moderates
A click-baity op-ed in the Wall Street Journal this week got me to thinking: what happens if President Joe Biden, who turns 81 next year, experiences some sort of medical episode later this year or next, casting doubt on his capacity to serve another term.
Perhaps pressure is then brought to bear. Elder statesmen of the party — e.g. Leon Panetta, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama (yes, at 61, Barry qualifies as elder) — travel to the White House to deliver the grim news that the president’s condition has worsened to the point that, while he might still be able to campaign, his chances of winning are slim because his condition would be obvious to all.
They cite polling indicating that 70% of voters — and 51% of Democrats — think he should not run again, notwithstanding his announcement last month that he would.
They plead with Biden and his staff, urging them that the best course would be for the president to make an LBJ-style announcement. For the uninitiated, President Lyndon Johnson withdrew from seeking reelection in 1968 after narrowly winning the New Hampshire primary against Minnesota Sen. Eugene McCarthy, the anti-Vietnam War candidate. Johnson was also convinced by an actuarial study he had commissioned earlier that year predicted that he was unlikely to live for more than four more years (turns out he had a fatal heart attack only two days into Richard Nixon’s second term).
What are the odds that Biden would live through a second term? Statistically, they’re not good. Depending on whose data you choose to believe (here’s the CDC’s), the life expectancy of the a U.S. male is in the mid 70s. So it’s not a stretch to think that he could die or, say, suffer a stroke or some other malady that could significantly handicap him and give voters second thoughts about whether he’s up to the demands of one of the most stressful jobs in the world.
Or things could get even more complicated. Let’s say Biden is reelected on Nov. 5, 2024, then dies or is incapacitated before he’s sworn in for a second term on Jan. 20, 2025, and before the Electoral College is scheduled to vote him into office on Jan. 6. Chaos would likely ensue. Emmy-award winning political commentator Jeff Greenfield, an acquaintance who used to have a home just down the road from me, wrote a fun novel, The People’s Choice, about just such a scenario.
This is where the WSJ op-ed comes in. “If Biden Bows Out, How About Michelle Obama?” (free link) is written by two fairly prominent Democrats, Douglas Schoen and Andrew Stein. Both writers and the WSJ editorial board are taking a beating on Twitter for suggesting something that is, shall we say, improbable (Fox News and the WSJ have the same parent company).
I have seen no indication that Michelle Obama is interested in pursuing a late-stage career in electoral politics, so on one level this column presents a proposition that’s just plain silly — perhaps nothing more than political pornography for Democrats. On the proverbial other hand, it does highlight a potential problem that Dems might want to contemplate before it happens.
At the very least, there needs to be a Plan B. Unlike in 1968, when Democratic candidates such as McCarthy and Robert F. Kennedy seized the day in opposition to LBJ and his handling of the Vietnam War, the are no organizing principles that would animate prominent Democrats to oppose Biden. They mostly like what he has done, but, like most Americans, they are concerned (albeit privately) that Biden is too old and if he suffers a health crisis or dies at a crucial time during the campaign, it could give us four more years of you-know-who.
Perhaps the party elders are afraid of appearing bigoted against older folks. If so, they should weigh that fear against the chaos that would be created by an old man dying at an awkward time for the nation.
Here’s what we could be facing in November 2024: The Democratic nominee for president has had a stroke, is confined to a wheelchair and has trouble communicating his thoughts; the 77-year-old Republican nominee, a former president himself, is assembling a legal team to defend him against three criminal indictments (NYC, Fulton County, Ga., and DOJ).
Pick your poison.
As one of the marketing blurbs on the cover of Greenfield’s “People’s Choice” counsels — perhaps prophetically — “Read this while it’s still fiction.”